On the choice of the exchange-rate regimes

This paper utilizes recent research developments in portfolio balance theory and in real exchange-rate instability to synthesize, update, and test the optimum currency area (OCA) theory. Four hypotheses, capturing the central features of the OCA theory, are advanced and tested in a multinomial-logit setup. the empirical results establish the linkage between a fixed rate and financial integration, trade integration, plus inflation convergence. the Mundell-Fleming ranking of regime is refuted in a fundamental way. these findings are applied to a discussion of European monetary integration, in relation to both its final objective and its intermediate procedure.Foreign exchange rates

Potential Climatic Impacts and Reliability of Very Large-Scale Wind Farms

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled legitimate interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a threedimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using windmills to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1oC over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1oC is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of windmills by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate windmills. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Effects of spatial ability on multi-robot control tasks

Working with large teams of robots is a very complex and demanding task for any operator and individual differences in spatial ability could significantly affect that performance. In the present study, we examine data from two earlier experiments to investigate the effects of ability for perspective-taking on performance at an urban search and rescue (USAR) task using a realistic simulation and alternate displays. We evaluated the participants' spatial ability using a standard measure of spatial orientation and examined the divergence of performance in accuracy and speed in locating victims, and perceived workload. Our findings show operators with higher spatial ability experienced less workload and marked victims more precisely. An interaction was found for the experimental image queue display for which participants with low spatial ability improved significantly in their accuracy in marking victims over the traditional streaming video display. Copyright 2011 by Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc. All rights reserved

Teams organization and performance analysis in autonomous human-robot teams

This paper proposes a theory of human control of robot teams based on considering how people coordinate across different task allocations. Our current work focuses on domains such as foraging in which robots perform largely independent tasks. The present study addresses the interaction between automation and organization of human teams in controlling large robot teams performing an Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) task. We identify three subtasks: perceptual search-visual search for victims, assistance-teleoperation to assist robot, and navigation-path planning and coordination. For the studies reported here, navigation was selected for automation because it involves weak dependencies among robots making it more complex and because it was shown in an earlier experiment to be the most difficult. This paper reports an extended analysis of the two conditions from a larger four condition study. In these two "shared pool" conditions Twenty four simulated robots were controlled by teams of 2 participants. Sixty paid participants (30 teams) were recruited to perform the shared pool tasks in which participants shared control of the 24 UGVs and viewed the same screens. Groups in the manual control condition issued waypoints to navigate their robots. In the autonomy condition robots generated their own waypoints using distributed path planning. We identify three self-organizing team strategies in the shared pool condition: joint control operators share full authority over robots, mixed control in which one operator takes primary control while the other acts as an assistant, and split control in which operators divide the robots with each controlling a sub-team. Automating path planning improved system performance. Effects of team organization favored operator teams who shared authority for the pool of robots. © 2010 ACM

Does PPP hold for Big Mac price or consumer price index? Evidence from panel cointegration

This paper examines the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) using CPI and Big Mac prices. The benchmark model, i.e., the OLS method, which does not take nonstationarity into account, rejects the hypothesis of PPP regardless of prices used. We next use the panel cointegration method to consider the nonstationary nature of variables. Estimated results for CPI are mixed. The PPP is rejected when the nominal exchange rate is employed as the dependent variable but is not rejected when the price ratio is used as the dependent variable. By contrast, the PPP is overwhelmingly not rejected when the Big Mac price is used. Last, we remove the production bias and re-examine the same issue by using panel cointegration. The PPP is again decisively rejected when CPI price is used but not for Big Mac price. Accordingly, Big Mac price is more supportive to the validity of PPP than CPI price.Big Mac

Bulk-boundary correspondence for three-dimensional symmetry-protected topological phases

We derive a bulk-boundary correspondence for three-dimensional (3D) symmetry-protected topological (SPT) phases with unitary symmetries. The correspondence consists of three equations that relate bulk properties of these phases to properties of their gapped, symmetry-preserving surfaces. Both the bulk and surface data appearing in our correspondence are defined via a procedure in which we gauge the symmetries of the system of interest and then study the braiding statistics of excitations of the resulting gauge theory. The bulk data is defined in terms of the statistics of bulk excitations, while the surface data is defined in terms of the statistics of surface excitations. An appealing property of this data is that it is plausibly complete in the sense that the bulk data uniquely distinguishes each 3D SPT phase, while the surface data uniquely distinguishes each gapped, symmetric surface. Our correspondence applies to any 3D bosonic SPT phase with finite Abelian unitary symmetry group. It applies to any surface that (1) supports only Abelian anyons and (2) has the property that the anyons are not permuted by the symmetries.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl